Friday, October 31, 2014

Gold and Miners already started next leg down

Just a quick update.Gold and miners (GDX) didn't manage to move sideways this week.In fact GDX had yesterday a huge drop.Gold and GDX probably started next leg down (there is also MACD confirmation for both charts). As we said last week (Gold and Miners update 24-10-14) Gold is now moving towards 1000$ and GDX towards 15$

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Wind Energy ETF (FAN) in trouble...

Wind energy ETF (FAN) had a long run-up since 2012 from 5,5 to 13,5$.It topped out during summer 2014 and it is now in a downtrend.

Recently FAN broke down its long-term support trendline since 2012(red circle) although immediately managed to go above this trendline. The penetration of this trendline caused a lot of technical damage to the chart.

Currently, after being oversold, FAN is in a corrective uptrend.

We believe that price will move initially towards 11,2 and then finally towards 11,5 where a descending trendline, a resistance line(red line) and 55 exponential moving average converge.We suspect that FAN price will bounce there and then resume its downtrend.   

Friday, October 24, 2014

Gold and Gold Miners update

Gold is trading during the last week between 1225-1250$(as we said in last week update).We believe that next week is  important for determination of Gold downtrend momentum and maybe the level of an (at least) intermediate bottom.
If Gold manages to stay next week in the same trading range(1225-1250) then an attenuation of down pressure to gold price will probably lead to a bottom at 1100$.

If gold breaks down from the trading range then it has a good chance for an accelerated move towards 1000$.

Same picture for Gold Miners (GDX).If GDX manages to stay for another week between 20-22 then a bottom at around 17,5 is possible.

If it breaks down soon below 20$ then a move towards 15 is possible.  

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Energy sector (XLE, KOL) short-term bounce

Oil sector stocks (XLE) had a big drop (-20%) with huge volumes, breaking down from an uptrend established since 2012.

Price bounced at around 80 and now is moving towards 90+/-2, where there is a strong resistance area(red circle).There XLE will probably reverse and resume its downtrend.If it breaks below 79 then next targets will be 73 and then 64$

Coal sector stocks (KOL) are in a long time downtrend since 2011 already -70% down from their highs.

KOL after consolidating for about a year between summer 2013 and late summer 2014, broke down and bounced at aprox 15,5.We believe that it will move towards 17 and then resume its downtrend.Possible final bottom for KOL at around 13$

Monday, October 13, 2014

Gold and miners Update

Gold bounced at 1190 support and now is moving towards 1240-5.Currently between 1245-1260 (red circle) there is a significant resistance area.For bulls to have a chance they need to see gold to move above this area.We believe that for the next few days gold will move sideways between 1225-1240-5(blue rectangle).If gold breaks 1190 then 1150 and 1100 are next targets

Gold Miners(GDX) are in a similar situation.Overhead there are 2 strong declining resistance trendlines (black lines) currently at 23 and 25,5.We lean towards a sideways move for GDX for the following days between 20,5 and 22,3$.A break below 20,5 will lead price towards 19,5 and then 17,8

Friday, October 10, 2014

Turkey (TUR) at crossroads

Turkey is currently in front of multiple crossroads: Geostrategic(Kurdistan,Syria,Iraq,ISIS),  Political(Erdogan-protesters)  , Economic(Between the West and the East).This situation is reflected in the chart of turkey etf, TUR which is also at a crossroad.

Turkey (TUR) during the last 5 years is moving within a wide trading range between approx 40-70$. From mid-2011 to mid-2012 TUR made an inverted H&S formation with a measured target of around 60$, but TUR managed to overshoot this target and stop at around 75$ where was the previous high of 2010.

After the 2013 top at 75$ TUR moved again towards 40 where it found support from 2012 year-end bottom.There it reversed again towards 60$ and slide gradually at 50$ which is the current price.Again TUR seems like forming an inverted H&S(neckline at 60$) as long as it manages to stay above approx 45-47$ (where is  currently a supporting trendline from 2009 bottom) and then breaking up the descending trendline from 2013 .Additionally bulls would like to see RSI14(weekly) stay above 40.The measured target for this iH&S formation is 80$(just above the previous double top at 75$)

The inverted H&S scenario is dead if TUR moves below 45-47$.In that case TUR will probably move towards 40$

Sometime in the near future TUR will break the trading range formed since 2010.Will it be up or down?What will be the future of Turkey?Time will tell (and the charts of course...)

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Uranium and Crude update

Uranium (URA) after breaking down from its support line at 14 is now moving fast towards 11,5 where we believe that there is a good possibility for a bounce towards the descending trendline at around 13-13,5 or even a push towards 15.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) is in a clear medium-term downtrend.It didn't manage to break above 95 and is now moving towards 84 where we think it will bounce towards  88.If support at 84 fails then next target for crude will be 77,5 where there is strong support.