Friday, October 10, 2014

Turkey (TUR) at crossroads

Turkey is currently in front of multiple crossroads: Geostrategic(Kurdistan,Syria,Iraq,ISIS),  Political(Erdogan-protesters)  , Economic(Between the West and the East).This situation is reflected in the chart of turkey etf, TUR which is also at a crossroad.

Turkey (TUR) during the last 5 years is moving within a wide trading range between approx 40-70$. From mid-2011 to mid-2012 TUR made an inverted H&S formation with a measured target of around 60$, but TUR managed to overshoot this target and stop at around 75$ where was the previous high of 2010.

After the 2013 top at 75$ TUR moved again towards 40 where it found support from 2012 year-end bottom.There it reversed again towards 60$ and slide gradually at 50$ which is the current price.Again TUR seems like forming an inverted H&S(neckline at 60$) as long as it manages to stay above approx 45-47$ (where is  currently a supporting trendline from 2009 bottom) and then breaking up the descending trendline from 2013 .Additionally bulls would like to see RSI14(weekly) stay above 40.The measured target for this iH&S formation is 80$(just above the previous double top at 75$)

The inverted H&S scenario is dead if TUR moves below 45-47$.In that case TUR will probably move towards 40$

Sometime in the near future TUR will break the trading range formed since 2010.Will it be up or down?What will be the future of Turkey?Time will tell (and the charts of course...)