Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Crude near an intermediate bottom?

Crude ($WTIC) had recently a huge quick drop from around 105$ to 77,5$ currently.November to January is historically a weak period for crude price as seasonality charts prove.

There is a substantial resistance area at 75-77,5$.Weekly RSI is already in oversold territory and up to now there wasn't any significant pullback of the current sharp downmove.

On daily chart there are few signs of positive RSI divergence.

There are growing signs that crude is approaching a possible intermediate bottom at around 75$.We believe that in next 1 or 2 weeks crude will pause its downmove and then a trading range between (roughly) 76-83$ will follow until possibly early next year(blue box).