Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Bullish Bonds update

Both 10 year treasury note(UST) and 30 year treasury bond have broke out from their respective reversal patterns(Diamond for UST and IHS for USB as we have noticed here: http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/bullish-treasuries.html) and are probably in a medium term bullish run.

Monday, May 26, 2014

Tick Tock...The Value Line Geometric Index (XVG) clock is ticking for SPX

As SP500 (SPX) is moving towards new highs since mid 2013

, Value Line Geometric Index (XVG) (here is a definition of this index from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_Line_Composite_Index) hit a long term resistance of previous highs (1998, 2007) and bounced.

The last time there was such a divergence between SPX and XVG was during 1998-2000 when XVG topped out in mid-1998 and SPX almost 2 years later in mid-2000.  

Is XVG going to break out from this multiyear resistance and follow SPX or is XVG going far south dragging SPX with it?

We believe that XVG already topped out and the clock is ticking for the end of the SPX bull run from 2009.Though for how long will SPX diverge from XVG is difficult to tell...

Friday, May 23, 2014

Palladium Cycles...Does history rhyme?

Palladium ( 30% of palladium supply comes from Russia) is about to hit a resistance line (both in Dollar and in Gold terms). 

Palladium in Dollar terms

Palladium in Gold terms

We can clearly see a cycle price pattern for palladium(in gold ounces)

If Palladium manages to break through the resistance then we may see much higher prices like 1998-2001 (observe the similarity between green and orange rectangles)

Monday, May 19, 2014

Gold Update

Gold is probably ready to break up or down from the triangle that is forming from early April. Weekly RSI(14) is near its uptrend support. Trading triangles is a bit tricky as they tend to break out to one direction and then reverse and resume to the opposite direction...


Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Bullish Latin America? An Update

Recently (http://goldenopportunitytrading.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/emergening-markets-latin-america.html) we showed a few charts of Latin America ETFs. Especially in Peru (EPU) we showed a possible bottoming diamond pattern that has now broken to the upside

Also Brazil (EWZ) seems to break out from its falling wedge

And Mexico (EWW) from a triangle formation (although a triangle formation break out frequently ends to reverse and move the opposite way)

So altogether: Bullish Latin America...

Friday, May 2, 2014

Bullish Treasuries

10 Year Treasury Note:Possible diamond pattern(we believe that in this case it is a medium term bottom pattern)

30 Year Treasury Bond:Probably has formed an inverted head and shoulders and know is crossing the neckline(thin black line) and 55 weak Exp Moving Average.

Inflation Protected Treasuries (TIP):Has formed an ascending (bullish) triangle and recently broke up decisively. Probably it will move towards 119$