Saturday, December 27, 2014

A few wishful(?) end of year thoughts on Gold and USD

As we are heading towards the end of the year, we would like to share with you a few of our thoughts on Gold and USD. The following scenario is a byproduct of blending a delicious turkey dinner and a lot of wine with discussions about cycles, fractals, politics, physics and religion...

We would like to thank and wish all our readers a Happy New  Year and a very Profitable 2015!

Monday, December 22, 2014

Gold and Gold Miners still in bear mode-update

As we noticed almost 2 weeks ago (gold-and-gold-miners-still-in-bear-mode) Gold followed our preferred (pink) scenario and moved towards 1240$ where it bounced.

We can see some similarities of price action between October and from November until now (blue boxes).We believe that Gold will probably move fast initially towards 1100 and then 1000$

Gold Miners broke below the weak support line at around 18,5. Now this line is a weak resistance line which is converging with a descending resistance line (black line) and the EMA55(daily). There is a cluster of resistance between 18,5 to 20-21$ that is highly unlikely for GDX to penetrate.

Therefore we believe that GDX soon will move towards 14$ and then even 11$ where there is a good support zone as you can see in the following $HUI chart (100 HUI level=aprox 11 for GDX)

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Energy stocks (XLE) death cross

As we predicted in this post (2014/10/energy-sector-xle-kol-short-term-bounce) energy stocks (XLE) bounced at 88$ and then resumed their descend towards 73$ ( 73,89$ 12-12-14 intraday low). Also EMA21(weekly) just crossed EMA55(weekly) which is a death cross event. Unless XLE reverses and starts rallying immediately, we expect a move initially towards 60-65$ where there is a support zone from 2009,2011,2012 .If price manages to break this zone then a move towards 50-55$(support zone from 2008,2010) is very likely.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Gold and Gold Miners still in bear mode

Gold is still in a downtrend at around 1206 during typing this lines.There is a descending resistance trendline from late 2012 (weekly chart black line) currently at 1250$ and a positive divergence in weekly RSI (blue line)

During the last few days gold is in a tight trading range between 1190-1210$(practically between Daily EMA21 and EMA55).If gold manages to stay above 1210 we believe that it will move towards 1230-1240 where it will bounce and resume its downtrend with a fierce move towards 1000$(pink line).
If gold breaks below 1190$ then it will resume its downtrend towards initially 1110 and then 1000$(red line).We give 60% to the former and 40% to the later scenario.So be cautious with the interpretation of the current upmove from 1140$...

Regarding the Gold Miners (GDX), the picture is the same.If GDX manages to stay above 20$ then next target is 21-22$ where it will probably bounce and resume its downtrend towards 10$.If it breaks down below 18,5, probably it will move towards initially 14-14,5$ and then lower.