Friday, December 11, 2015

Natural Gas:Winter 2016 will be hot and the Bears awake

In a previous post we predicted correctly that Natural Gas will return to 1.95(Nat Gas is returning to where it started (1.95$)).Now we present our long term view on NG for 2016.
We believe that NG will soon bounce towards 2.25-2.5 (02/2016) and then dive towards 1.35-1.45 (4Q2016).

As we showed in previous posts (2016: The Year of the Bear (II))(DAX: A Huge Head and Shoulders pattern is already forming), winter 2016 is going to be "hot" and the Bears awake

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

DAX: A Huge Head and Shoulders pattern is already forming

We believe that 2016 will be a Bear Year for equities in general(2016: The Year of the Bear (II)).Specifically for DAX we believe that it will move down towards 9000(H&S neckline) then move towards 10.400(Right Shoulder) and finally move towards around 6800 on 4Q2016. We predict that this correction will move DAX price aprox 45% lower from March-April 2015 Highs.



Saturday, December 5, 2015

2016: The Year of the Bear (II)

In a previous post(SPX year-end prediction: 2016 the Year of the Bear) we presented our prediction regarding SPX for 2016. Today we present a very long term chart of SPX which further enhances our view:

Another relevant chart for Dow Jones Industrial:


And for a more clear picture of the currently forming H&S, let us see the DJ small cap index:
 


Tuesday, December 1, 2015

SPX year-end prediction: 2016 the Year of the Bear

As 2016 approaches we present today our year end SPX prediction for 2016.
We believe that SPX has topped out (or almost there) and that a bear market in equities will ensue.We expect this bear market to bring SPX down to 1400 0r even around 1000 in late 2016 - early 2017.

(needless to say that SPX will not move in a straight line down to 1400/1000.The arrows show the general trend)

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Gold's bottom on summer 2016

Gold remains in a well establish bear market since early 2013. Looking at the big picture we believe that currently Gold is running the C leg of an ABC correction that started back in 2012.Specifically gold will probably soon complete the 3rd wave of C and then bounce temporarily before a final leg (5th wave of C) and a bottom at green zone at around 930$ during the 2Q or 3Q of 2016

 We believe that gold will bottom out on summer 2016 along with other major commodities and then a strong upleg will ensue.Hopefully this upleg will not coincide with WW3...

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Energy stocks (XLE) about to bounce and head south

Energy stocks (XLE) recently showed some strength.Since its lows around 59-60$ (as we correctly predicted on early August Oil at crossroads )  on late August and and late September XLE is moving north. Currently XLE is approaching multiple resistance lines.

If we zoom out a bit and focus on the big picture we believe that XLE will move again towards its lows or even lower, finally reaching a bottom around 55$ on summer 2016.





Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Oil update: Approaching a short term reversal point

Oil is currently moving towards support zone at 40-41.8 as we predicted in a previous post(Oil is probably forming a diamond: Reversal or Continuation?).Today and tomorrow we expect a fast move towards this support zone and then a bounce towards resistance zone at 44-46$.
Keep always in mind the big picture




Monday, October 26, 2015

EURUSD: Bullish until late 2017? A long term Road-map

The big picture (monthly) chart of EURUSD is as follows:It is in a long-term downtrend.RSI has recently bounced of oversold territory.Probably we are at the end of wave 3 (or early stages of wave 4).Wave 4 should take us towards around 1.24 until late 2017.Then a last leg down and a bottom around:
A)0.8 on summer 2019(blue scenario)
B)0.95 early 2019 (black scenario)


Saturday, October 24, 2015

Nat Gas is returning to where it started (1.95$)

Natural gas is in a well established downtrend since early 2014.Historically Natural gas prices during the months from November to mid-February are weak

It took about 22 months for Natural gas to climb from 1.95 to almost 6.5 (2012-2014).If market obeys to some kind of symmetry then Nat gas will be at 1.95 around Christmas time where it should complete a five wave down movement.


Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Crude oil at 21.5$ by next summer?

If history tends to repeat

 and the diamond pattern we noticed in a previous post(Oil is probably forming a diamond: Reversal or Continuation?) turns to be a continuation pattern then there is a good possibility that crude oil can touch 21.5$ per barrel on mid-summer 2016



Monday, October 19, 2015

Oil is probably forming a diamond: Reversal or Continuation?

Back in late July we predicted accurately the bottom for Oil and XLE(Oil at crossroads). Also we predicted very well the course of oil price after the bottom (Are better days coming for oil? 2 possible scenarios.).Oil followed our prefered scenario(bounced twice at 48-50) 

We still believe that oil will follow this scenario

 So if we look at the big picture, oil can form a diamond pattern.We believe that around christmas- new year oil will decide if this diamond will be a reversal or a continuation one.

Respectively currently we have the follow projection for XLE

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Falling VIX as SPX approaches significant resistance

Last weekend (SP500(SPX): A bear flag is forming...) we expected the SPX to move lower during the previous week.However SPX managed to slowly move higher.Currently there is a significant resistance zone at 2040-2060.We still believe that the current formation since late August is a bear flag.

VIX is falling rapidly suggesting increasing complacency. MACD (of VIX) is moving fast to negative territory and RSI is already near 30 which means that sooner rather than later VIX will get oversold and an increase in volatility will ensue along probably with a new downmove of SPX.

We believe that next week SPXwill form a small rising wedge towards 2040-2060 where it will probably reverse hard.
   

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Russell2000 2006-2008/ 2014-2016: An Analog

These days there is a lot of bearish talking regarding equities across the entire blogosphere. Many people are getting ready for an imminent black-swan type of event.However if we check Russell's 2000 chart we can see that back in 2008 it took about 3 years for the RUT to form a proper Head and Shoulders pattern.It took approximately 1 year for each stage of the formation.So back to the present situation we can see that RUT was rangebound during 2014(Left shoulder?) and then went higher and stalled in 2015(head?).If we use RUT price history as our guide for the future then probably Bears have to go to sleep for most of 2016. 

Saturday, October 10, 2015

SP500(SPX): A bear flag is forming...

SP500 (SPX) is probably forming kind of a bear flag which probably will signal the continuation of the recent downtrend.Currently as we noted yesterday there is lots of resistance at 2020(Lots of overhead resistance for SPX today). A weak support line lies at around 1915 and then there is some significant support from the lower trendline of the bear flag.For the next couple of weeks we expect a move towards the lower line of the bear flag.However this line probably will hold at least temporarily and a bounce towards 1975 is very likely.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Has silver's long awaited bull started?

Recently silver had a quick strong upmove and managed to break above resistance at 15.5. Despite the recent upmove we remain neutral on silver.It seems like it is forming a rising channel (neutral-bullish scenario) or a rising wedge (bearish scenario). Currently there is an important rising support line (the lower line of the channel/wedge) which is very critical. As long as silver stays above that line a significant bull move is on the cards. A break below that line can signal the continuation of the long-term downtrend for silver.
1.Neutral scenario(60%)

2.Bullish scenario (30%)

3.Bearish scenario (10%)
To summarize:(For the next 1-2 weeks) A sustained move above 16.00 will be very bullish for silver.We will remain neutral between 16.00-14.65. A quick move below 14.65-14.75 will turn our view on silver bearish again


Saturday, October 3, 2015

Copper: Trading setups for a bear continuation and for a possible reversal

Copper is currently in a longterm downtrend.

Today we are presenting 2 trading set-ups:
1.Bearish set up

At 2.40 there is significant resistance from the descending trendline. We will sell at 2.40 with a stop-loss(SL) at 2.41(SL is activated only if the price closes above 2.41).If price moves downwards towards our first target at 2.26 then we will move our stop-loss order to 2.33.Second target for this trade is 2.20.
Currently we favor the bearish scenario as Copper is in a longterm downtrend and we prefer to short the rallies rather than try to catch the knife (=bottom)

2.Bullish set-up

If price manages to break above 2.40 , it will probably move towards 2.50 where it should bounce.In that case our long order will be at 2.43 with SL at around 2.42 (again SL is activated only if price closes below 2.42).First target for this scenario would be 2.57.

Any opinions and ideas expressed herein are only opinion and for informational purposes only.Nothing on this blog is to be considered a buy, sell or hold recommendation.Always do your own due diligence





Friday, October 2, 2015

Silver out of the woods? not yet...A pathway for the next days

Silver is in a triangle formation.There is significant resistance at 15.50 level.Currently silver is moving towards 15.50.We believe that silver won't break 15.50 and will slide towards the support line of the triangle at around 14.6. 
At that point silver will either(red line scenario) break below support and move towards 13.5 or it will bounce and retest 15.50.A break above 15.50 (green line scenario) will lead silver towards 16 and then probably it will retest 15.50 as support.




TLT moving on....

During the last 1.5 months TLT is moving according to our previous prediction (QE...4?)

Today TLT is hovering just above the resistance level of 125.If TLT manages to close today or early next week above 125 probably it will bounce at around today's high 126.2 and move towards 124 where we can see another good entry point.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Is gold forming a triangle?

A couple of days ago we suggested 3 possible moves for gold (Gold: A road-map for the next 15 days).At that time we were neutral and in fact we remain neutral on gold.Gold broke below the support line of the rising channel and currently is moving towards 1110 support.

If gold bounces at that level then probably gold is forming a triangle (usually a continuation pattern).

If gold breaks below 1110 and especially below 1090-1095, this will mean a possible move towards 1040-1045.


 

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Gold: A road-map for the next 15 days

Recently Gold managed to break above the resistance at 1135.
Currently gold is moving along a steep rising channel and next resistance level lies at around 1165 (previous regional high on 23/8/15).Above 1165 there is heavy resistance at 1180 level.

Currently as we explained in a previous post(Gold: Ready to make a move?), we remain neutral about gold. Below we describe a bullish, a neutral and a bearish pathway for gold depending on the price action at different important levels:

A)Bullish scenario
Gold retraces towards the lower channel line near the support line of 1136 where it bounces and moves above 1167 level towards 1175-1180 (channel resistance and heavy horizontal resistance) where it will probably correct towards 1160-1165.A break above 1180 level can be a very bullish event.

B)Neutral Scenario
Gold breaks below the channel support and horizontal support at around 1136 and then after a small pause moves towards 1110

C)Bearish scenario
Gold moves below 1110 after forming a Head and Shoulders (three black wedges).This formation points towards 1100.A move below 1110 is a significant bearish event.A move below 1090-1095 will be a very bearish event for gold 


Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Brazil turnaround?....Under conditions the unthinkable can happen

Currently Brazil (EWZ) is in a well established downtrend since a year ago(-57% since last Sept).

Yesterday EWZ closed(21.90) just below the critical level of 22 forming a gap.Today is going to be a very interesting day regarding the price action of EWZ.
2 possible scenarios:
A) EWZ closes well below 22.That will probably mean that the gap was actually a continuation gap and will lead EWZ towards 14.
B)EWZ closes above 22.In that case a possible inverted H&S formation is on the cards.In that case we need to see a fast move with relatively increasing volume(PVO already is increasing and is ready to cross zero level).This upmove needs to break 23.8 level and close above this price level.Then a correction towards around 23.3 will complete the pattern of an inverted H&S.
 However wait until almost today's close.Don't catch the falling knife...Be ready to catch the handle.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Gold: Ready to make a move?

Gold after bouncing at resistance zone of 1155-1160(Gold at resistance zone) moved downwards towards support at 1105$.Currently Gold is lying between 2 support and 2 resistance zones(green and red lines respectively).

At this point Gold is in an established long-term downtrend (beneath 200 SMA).Short-term Gold is neutral.In order to establish a new uptrend or confirm the current downtrend gold needs to move above 1155-1160 resistance zone or below 1075 support respectively.
We believe that a significant move of gold price is in the cards.As we can notice in the weekly Gold Volatility Index chart ($GVZ), gold volatility after bottoming during last summer is now in an uptrend.

Currently we are neutral on gold.Above 1155-1160 gold will turn bullish and the next target will be 1190-1200.
Below 1075 gold will be bearish and next target will be 1025$