Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Gold still Bearish (...but slowly we're getting there)

Recently gold broke up from a trading range around 1090.Regardless of the recent run-up we remain bearish on gold. Currently and as long as gold stays below 1135, it has few possibilities for a longer-term upmove.
We believe that the current move of gold will stall at around 1125-1130 (or lower) and reverse towards 1080 or a bit lower.

We stay with a previous gold EW count(Gold shows further signs of weakness).
Current upmove is probably a fourth wave of a bigger third wave.So probably, gold will retrace towards 1080 or lower in a fifth wave:

Same picture for miners (GDX):Probably the current upmove will fade at around 14.8 and reverse towards recent lows (13.0) or even lower.After that, a strong bounce (fourth wave of current downmove from January this year) will probably kick in.