Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Gold in uptrend(?), Silver and miners still in downtrend

Gold managed to penetrate the heavy resistance line from 2012 and EMA(weekly) 21 and 55 which is bullish.However RSI14(weekly) bounced at resistance area 60-65(red line).

Silver and miners(GDX) are still below their heavy resistance trendlines from 2012 and EMA55(weekly) respectively.

Will Gold drag Silver and GDX or vice versa?

We believe that the level of 1235-1240$ is very important for gold.Bulls need to see price of gold above that level and preferably RSI14(weekly) breaking above its respective resistance area of 60-65(usually that happens during a 3,III).If Gold moves below that level the bullish scenario is loosing steam...

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Gold turning bullish?

Gold finally managed to breakup the significant resistance line from 2012 with heavy volume after forming an IHS.Currently price of gold is above 21 and 55 EMA.
Next target 1340$.

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Gold at crossroads...

Gold is currently in a downtrend, still below EMA(weekly)55 and the descending trendline (black line) from 2012.Weekly RSI is below 60-65 resistance zone.

Daily chart, shows price of gold currently hitting the heavy resistance trendline(black) and daily RSI entering the resistance zone of 60-65.

Bulls need to see gold to break the descending trendline  with substantially increased volume and preferably  daily RSI above 65.We believe that there is a good chance for gold to bounce at resistance and continue its downtrend.   

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Geometric Value Line Index:Never confirmed the SPX all time highs

Geometric Value Line Index($XVG) is for the last few months under a significant horizontal resistance line. SPX  managed to break up to ATH(all time highs) but XVG still isn't confirming this upmove. 

Will XVG start rolling down towards the lower trendline of a falling megaphone( meaning a major crash for equity indices)?or is it different this time and it will follow SPX to ATH breaking out of this huge megaphone formation? 

Sunday, January 4, 2015

Agricultural Commodities (DBA): A Brewing Rally?

Agricultural Commodities ETF (DBA) is in a downtrend since May 2014.During the previous week price broke down below the pivot point @ 25$ and is moving fast down.At first glance this is a bearish event...

..BUT you can notice that during the last test of 25$(17/12/14) there was a wide price range (wide price spread) with Low volume (green circle) suggesting low participation of smart money to a possible further downmove.
Also the recent breakdown was accompanied by slight increase in volume (blue circle).Next support area is 24-24,5$.

Taking into account the previous observations we believe that, unless we see a substantial increase in volume during down days,  there is a good possibility that the current down move is a fake one.We believe that DBA (which BB width is very compressed, and BB have just started to expand) is ready for a big move.First a bounce @ around 24,3 and then rally towards 26 and possibly further up.