Sunday, December 18, 2016

EWI: "The Italian Job"

Greetings traders,

We have all witnessed recently the hype of the Italian referendum and the associated rescue plan of the italian banks.
Still lots of bearish news may come up, however we believe that Italy is getting out of the woods following a bear market that started in June 2014.
Why?
Well, you can clearly notice to the following chart that Italy ETF (EWI) has formed an excellent bullish bat pattern starting from July 2012 low and finishing in July 2016 low.

The targets of the Bullish Bat are 
1st target: 26.64
2nd target: 30.5

Now, let us zoom in to the chart....

We can see that EWI following the lows of July 2016 formed a decent bullish Gartley pattern and after completion of the pattern the price zoomed higher towards the current levels.

However, we can see that there is a convergence of multiple resistance lines (AD 0.236 fibo, descending bear market trendline, inverted H&S neckline, pitchfork trendline from the current upmove) at current levels.Therefore we expect some kind of correction or consolidation.
Overall we think that Italy is very bullish, especially for the long-term.
Safe trading!

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

SPX ahead of FED

Greetings traders,
Lately we have witnessed a significant rally for SPX.
Currently SPX is hitting the upper border of its channel.
RSI is overbought at 77.5
We have the FED (miniscule) tightening, already priced in by the markets and Christmas holidays following.
For all the above reasons we believe that SPX will move sideways forming kind of a rounded top and then proceed with a correction towards the midline of the channel.

Trade safely!

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Renewables: Some promising signs

Hi all!This will be a quick post on renewables.
There is a potential reversal island setup for solar energy etf TAN

Also the wind energy etf FAN is forming a huge cap with handle formation which potentially can produce returns of 35%.

Happy trading!
For more updates follow me in Stocktwits (fiboman)

Sunday, November 27, 2016

US Dollar is due for a correction

US Dollar recently showed strength and just managed to break above the 100 level (USD index).
However we think that it is due for a correction probably below the 100 mark.

A USD correction will ease the pressure off the precious metals.

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Gold: Getting ready to bounce

A quick update on gold.After reaching 1200 gold will probably bounce towards 1260
Below 1190 things will turn nasty for bulls.

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Is copper out of the woods?

The short answer is no... at least not yet!
The current bear market is not over yet.However it seems like copper is entering a horizontal consolidation phase(or bull flag).Needs to react at least temporarily at 2.52. If not then the bear trend is still there.

Friday, November 11, 2016

Gold near a buying zone

Gold after hitting resistance at around 1300 moved fast towards 1220 as we suggested in a previous post(Gold within 2 channels and halfway down the correction)

Gold is currently in wave C of a correction from the recent highs back in August 

 We believe that gold around 1220 is a buying opportunity.
Happy trading! 

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Junk bonds below EMA200. An alert for stock markets....

Today HYG broke below EMA200. This is a very negative event indeed.If HYG does not reverse soon then things can turn really nasty for stock markets.


Sunday, October 30, 2016

Gold within 2 channels and halfway down the correction

Gold is within a broad ascending channel and a smaller (and more recent) descending channel.It seems it is now in a wave B towards somewhere between 1285-1300 where probably will bounce and head down towards 1220

Happy trading!

Sunday, October 23, 2016

An interesting week ahead of us for gold miners

This week will be an interesting week for gold miners as many of them are reporting earnings.
Current technical picture for GDX:

And don't forget gold

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

SPX: Approaching a significant time-price line

S&P500 is approaching a significant time-price line.

If it fails to bounce at that line then things are starting to get ugly for bulls.Below the red line bears can smile again. 

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

GDX : approaching resistance and is already overbought

GDX is in a correction mode since early August.Currently GDX is approaching a descending resistance trendline and is already overbought.A bounce lower is very possible.If GDX breaks above resistance then the next target is 27 at the end of the month.

Happy trading!

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Gold within 2 channels and some crucial decision price-time points...

Gold is within a broad ascending channel and a smaller (and more recent) descending channel.
Gold price currently hovers just above the lower band of the descending channel.
A possible significant decision point for gold is  ~1230 at around US general election date.
Another significant decision point  1303  at around Christmas.

Happy trading!

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Silver: Short term oversold

Silver is currently approaching a channel support while being significantly oversold.

Expect a relief bounce towards 18.5

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Market at deep stall... and spring 2015 deja-vu!

Good morning lab rats!
Back in mid-August we warned you that market was approaching stall speed(Market (SPX) is dangerously approaching stall speed).
Three weeks later market experienced a sharp correction.
Yesterday our model just flashed red.
Unless the market moves spectacularly higher in the next couple of weeks, our model will probably confirm yesterdays signal.
So what are the implications.
According to the current data, market is in a deep stall situation and probably sooner rather than later will succumb to gravitational pull.
Our hand is on the sell to close button...In case we have a confirmation of our signal in the next couple of weeks, we are going to hit it and remain out of the market.
Market conditions these days are eerily similar to market conditions back in spring 2015.

An ascending wedge is forming with quickly deteriorating market internals...
It seems like the ascending wedge will top out at 11100 (Nyse composite) around US elections.
After that and if history rhymes market will initially move towards 10000.
Sorry bulls...For the time being these are the facts...  
  

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Biotechnology (IBB) update

Biotechnology (IBB) is currently in an uptrend(Biotechnology(IBB) update ahead of FED decision).

Zooming in we can clearly see that IBB(60 min)  is at horizontal and trendline(pitchfork) support.RSI is now in a neutral zone after reaching overbought levels leading IBB to a healthy correction.If it breaks down there is support at 296.5 and 293 (fib+pitchfork)

Have fun!

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Gold miners:out of the woods? Not quite yet

Despite the fact that Gold miners (GDX) moved fast upward after FED's decision to keep rates unchanged, they are still not out of the woods...

GDX needs to move decisively above 28.5 and even better above 30.35
Currently RSI is moving away from overbought levels while GDX is approaching support at 27.5 and then 27.2.
A bounce at these levels is expected.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Biotechnology(IBB) update ahead of FED decision

The current upmove looks strong.
Be cautious ahead of FED decision.
Support at 276.5 and then 269.5
Lots of resistance between 315-320.

Let us see what will be the verdict tomorrow...

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Gold:decision pending...

Gold has recently formed a (?)bull flag.Current price action shows that the flag will soon break.Below 1335 we favor a breakdown of the flag towards around 1265 (or even 1220).
Above 1335 and specifically above 1345 the next reasonable target will be 1376.5
We remain bullish on gold.However we believe that until the end of the year gold will move sideways...

Happy trading!

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

SPX: Is the current upmove dead?

About a month ago we suggested caution regarding the equities market (Market (SPX) is dangerously approaching stall speed).We noted that "unless market moves higher with full speed, soon it will succumb to gravity"  and that is what's happening now. Is the current upmove dead? We don't think so.
There is still plenty of room for equities to correct before proclaiming the death of the current bull.
Current support levels for SPX: around 2100, 2040, 1990

Keep calm and trade on!
  

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Long Term Treasuries (TLT) : Just a correction?

Yesterday TLT broke below 137 support(now acts as resistance).Next support is at 134.5 and then 132. For short term bulls it is important for TLT to hold above 134.5(lower boundary of the pitchfork and 0.382 retrace of the current up-trend).

Saturday, September 3, 2016

Biotechnology (IBB) Update

Biotechnology (IBB):
Significant resistance: around 314
Support levels 277.5 and then 270 
Below 253 things can turn really nasty  for bulls

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Biotech Update (IBB): Bulls need to act fast

The inability of IBB to break the descending Gann line (light blue) is a significant event pointing to further lower prices, in our opinion.

However bulls still have hopes as long as price stays above 277.90. In case price breaks below 277.90, then the next target (where the line in the sand lies for bulls) is 270.Below this level, bears are in control.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

US Equities Market: A FED run business

Since the financial crisis back in 2008 many believe that the US equities market is essentially a FED run business.We think that this notion is true.Below you can see the close correlation between the broad US equities market and FED monetary base.

Also we would like to note that every time monetary base formed a plateau the market went sideways.However interestingly market tends to start a prolonged upmove about 6 months BEFORE a significant monetary expansion.
Current monetary plateau lasted about 2 years (on October).Market started to rally since last February which is exactly 6 months ahead of Oct 2016....
We believe that market discounts an expansion of monetary base from October 2016 onwards and therefore a significant rise for stocks...
Happy trading!

Friday, August 19, 2016

Market (SPX) is dangerously approaching stall speed

Good morning.We are getting ever so worried about market internals.Market currently resembles a plane flying at near stall speed.We believe that unless market moves higher with full speed, soon it will succumb to gravity.
So













Be prepared, a correction ahead is very possible
Support levels: 2140,2080

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Gold: Just the facts mam...

Recently we showed that gold was ready to pause (Gold: About to take a break?) and in fact that is what is happening right now.
Currently gold is consolidating just beneath the upper boundary of multiple resistance levels(horizontal, gann, monthly ichimoku).It looks like it is forming a continuation triangle (a bullish flag which means a move towards 1300 cannot be excluded).Fibo, EW and classic TA studies suggest a target for gold at 1450-1500$ on condition that it manages to break above 1370-1400$

Happy trading!  

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Utilities (XLU) A cup and handle?

Today we would like to show a very bullish pattern for XLU.
We think that Utilities are gradually forming a Cup and Handle pattern suggesting higher prices in the future.

Happy trading!

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Staples (XLP) buy signal

Last Friday staples ETF (XLP) broke above a ST descending trendline after a breakout off a consolidation and a subsequent confirmation of the breakout.

 We are bullish on XLP and initiate a long position

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Gold: About to take a break?

About a month ago we noted that "Currently Gold is in a resistance zone (1300-1400) and hitting 1/2 Gann angle from the recent bear market."(Gold in a resistance zone without any signs of weakness).

At that point gold was around 1370, currently gold is at 1350.
As you can clearly see from the previous chart gold is in a resistance zone and on top of that the ichimoku cloud is hanging over gold dangerously(monthly chart, see below) and a Gann resistance angle from the previous 2011-2015 bear market is at current levels(weekly chart see below)

We feel that gold will pause and correct in the near future.How much?A very plausible target is around 1260-1280(or even 1210)
Time will tell.
Happy trading!

Thursday, August 4, 2016

XLE: A huge Inverted Head and Shoulders

Back in May we suggested that "Bulls need to see XLE breaking above 67 (even temporarily) towards the resistance zone of 71-74.In this case the formation of an Inverted Head and Shoulders formation is very possible, leading XLE much higher"(Energy sector (XLE): Make it or Break it!)

As we can clearly see from the following chart XLE since May touched 70+ and then retraced.Also volume recently started to pick up.We stay with our view for a huge Inverted Head and Shoulder formation for XLE and our current preferred pathway is as follows:

Happy trading!

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Natural Gas in correction mode

Glad to be back after relaxing 2 weeks in a magnificent Greek island!
Natural gas is in a bullish flag.Currently there is significant, multiple(gann, ichimoku, horizontal) support at 2.42-2.5


Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Gold in a resistance zone without any signs of weakness

Currently Gold is in a resistance zone (1300-1400) and hitting 1/2 Gann angle from the recent bear market.
Divergences: Nothing yet
Above 1400-1420 minimal resistance up to 1550.
Seasonality: Usually summer-autumn is a period of strength for gold.













Sunday, July 10, 2016

Rare Earth Metals(REMX): A rare opportunity?

REMX has a very good possibility of forming a long term bottom, an Inverted Head and Shoulders one.

A "rare" buying opportunity after 5 years of a relentless bear market?


SPX towards All Time Highs

After Brexit we expected SPX to move towards 1870 and then rebound above 2000.However SPX had a shallower and short lived retrace to 1980.Bears lost a chance to lead SPX much lower.But where do we stand right now?
Currently SPX lies above support (both in daily and weekly charts) with no signs of weakness and just below All time highs.The short-lived downmove of SPX after Brexit resulted in a ST buy signal at 2050 

Probably SPX will make new ATH soon.
Bulls congratulations!

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Crude is approaching triple support

Crude is approaching, while moving in a downward channel(? bull flag- wave 4), triple support at around 44-44.5.

Will it bounce?

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Agriculture ready for launch?

Agriculture ETF DBA is in a long term downtrend since early 2011.However lately it moved fast, off a recent bottom at around 19.5
Lately DBA tried to penetrate a low supply zone between 23-24.5 however unsuccessfully and then retraced towards 2/1 Gann support where it bounced.
We expect DBA to move (soon) above 23 where it will quickly penetrate the aforementioned low supply zone and then move towards a heavy supply zone between 24.5-26 where it will probably stall (possibly around year end).
Therefore:

Is DBA ready for a launch?

If it manages to stay above 20.5 then probably it is indeed ready.

Monday, June 27, 2016

High Yield Bonds Break down

Today we saw a nasty break down for High yield Bonds(HYG) signaling further weakness initially  towards 78.5-80.Equities markets will probably follow.

Saturday, June 25, 2016

BREXIT, Yellen and the morning after pill

We would like to congratulate all bears who anticipated and  correctly predicted the Brexit. 
So where do we stand right now?
We believe that it will take the markets some time to digest recent developments(consolidation).After that, some more "panic" will ensue upon realization of the implications of Brexit. SPX will move fast towards 1875 around late July where Yellen will probably treat Markets with the morning after pill-->A rate cut!
At that point SPX will quickly move above 2000.

It will be an interesting summer.
So stay tuned and enjoy!   

Friday, June 24, 2016

Is BREXIT the SHTF moment for German equities(DAX)?Not quite yet...

Has Brexit just opened the pandora's box for German stocks(DAX)?Not quite yet.
Back in December 2015 we nailed the pathway of DAX for the following months(DAX: A Huge Head and Shoulders pattern is already forming).

Currently DAX is in a well defined downtrend since March 2015.However it is still above EMA200 and in a very long intact (so far) uptrend since 2003!

We estimate that DAX will soon break below the EMA200 ,initially towards  7700.
Let the dust settle down and be patient!

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

USDJPY ahead of British Referendum

Just hours before the British referendum we will like to show the implications of Brexit or Bremain on USDJPY

Bremain: A relief move towards around 113 is almost guaranteed

Brexit: A plunge towards 90-95 is definitely in the cards

Note that usually there is a positive correlation between USDJPY and US stocks.Since early 2016 this correlation was broken.We believe that during the current move the correlation will be reestablished which means that USDJPY and SPY will move in the same direction.
Currently there is some positive RSI divergence which favors Bremain.
In or out? Pick your poison...